July 28, 2009 - Drew Montag
Yeah, I know, I’m the “basketball guy” at UMGoBlue.com, not one of the football guys, but I’m a UM football fan as well. Every year, I make my predictions for the upcoming UM football season, and most of the time I get pretty close. Occasionally I’m too optimistic (2007: predicted = 11-1, actual = 8-4), and occasionally I’m too pessimistic (2006: predicted = 7-5, actual = 11-1), but usually I’m optimistic and the Wolverines reward my optimism. Then there was last season. I predicted a 4-8 season, and I was the only person I knew who was predicting a losing season. I expected a few raised eyebrows, but I wasn’t prepared for the reaction I got. I got blasted for it. I never expected to get hate mail, but I did. Somehow, people thought that my prediction would somehow turn a good season into a bad one. Sorry, but I don’t have that kind of power.
As we all know, Michigan had their worst season ever (3-9), which is even worse than I had predicted. I took no joy from being (close to) right. I would have been overjoyed to have been proven wrong, and to have watched UM go 8-4 or something. Instead, it was like watching a slow-motion car crash.
So, how did I do it? Was it very careful analysis of all the players and how they would fit in the new schemes? Nope, it was just a matter of looking at the schedule and going with my gut feelings about each matchup. And that’s what I’m doing again for this season. Sure, I think UM will be (greatly) improved over last year. Sure, I think that all the players will be much more comfortable in the new schemes. Yeah, we just barely missed winning some games last season that we could win this season. But even taking all that into account, I still don’t have a very good feeling about the upcoming season. Maybe once I see the Rich Rodriguez Experiment succeed for a whole season, I’ll start to get some of my old optimism back, but for now, I’m still thinking “rebuilding”.
Anyway, here are my predictions for the 2009 season:
|
Date |
Opponent |
Result |
Record |
Comments |
|
09/05 |
Western Michigan |
W |
1-0 (0-0) |
They are a MAC team, after all |
|
09/12 |
Notre Dame |
L |
1-1 (0-0) |
Closer than last year, but still a loss |
|
09/19 |
Eastern Michigan |
W |
2-1 (0-0) |
Finally, an easy win |
|
09/26 |
Indiana (Homecoming) |
W |
3-1 (1-0) |
IU should finish last in the Big Ten |
|
10/03 |
at Michigan State |
L |
3-2 (1-1) |
Maybe at home, but not on the road |
|
10/10 |
at Iowa |
L |
3-3 (1-2) |
A very tough place to win |
|
10/17 |
Delaware State |
W |
4-3 (1-2) |
A much-needed breather |
|
10/24 |
Penn State |
L |
4-4 (1-3) |
PSU is just too good this year |
|
10/31 |
at Illinois |
L |
4-5 (1-4) |
Too much Juice Williams |
|
11/07 |
Purdue |
W |
5-5 (2-4) |
Keeping the bowl dream alive |
|
11/14 |
at Wisconsin |
L |
5-6 (2-5) |
Another tough place to win |
|
11/21 |
Ohio State |
L |
5-7 (2-6) |
Improved, but not enough |
I think UM will end up in 8th place in the Big Ten, with no bowl game again.
Of the 7 losses, 2 of them might turn to wins: at Illinois and at Wisconsin. If UM can win either of them, then they might sneak into a lower-tier bowl game.
Go Blue!
|
UMGoBlog.COM
UMGoVideo.COM
UMGoPodcast.COM
